The odds, on the record.
Our calls on public events, posted before the outcome and scored after it.
Open calls
Each call is dated the day it went up. The figure is our estimated chance that the outcome happens by the date shown, with its range.
The first calls go up on 2 November 2026.
Resolved
Newest first: what happened, then whether our call held. A call held when we said 50 percent or more and it happened, or under 50 percent and it did not; a call at exactly 50 percent is neither. Nothing is deleted.
No call has resolved yet.
The scorecard
On 31 December 2026 we score every resolved call: when we said about N percent, it happened M percent of the time.
No call has resolved yet. The table goes up on 31 December 2026.
How we make a call
- Public historyEach call starts from the public record of past cases like it, counted and linked in the basis line.
- The methodHow often the outcome followed in those cases, stated as one chance with its range and its limits written down.
- Posted before the outcomeEvery call is dated and posted here before the outcome is known. A posted call is never edited.
- Every call kept, held or notEach result stays on this page beside its call. Nothing is deleted.
The method, in public: How we decide →
What we never call
Only public processes and physical events: how long a maritime advisory stays in force, whether an agency publishes guidance after a tariff action, whether a port closes after a warning.
- Market values, tokens or investments.
- A named company’s fate.
- Who is sanctioned next.
- People.
This is the one page where BSJ Ventures states a chance. Everywhere else on this site, we describe what moved.
A call is our estimate on the public record as it stood on the day posted. It is not advice.
Calls signed by BSJ Ventures.
Next: Pre-flight
Pre-flight for every decision.
A call states one chance on a public event. A pre-flight models your own decision on your data and the record, every assumption dated, and signs it with its range.